Tennessee State v Gardner-Webb: Preview and Prediction

title image via ESPN


Saturday Tennessee State takes on Gardner-Webb in Big South-OVC play. For the Tigers, a win not only keeps them in the hunt to play for the Big South-OVC Championship game but also keeps alive the potential for a postseason berth. 

image via Tennessee State Athletics

In their most recent outing, Tennessee State defeated Western Illinois 45-20, in the first meeting between the two schools. Scoring on their first four offensive possessions, the Tigers roared to a 28-3 lead in the first half. The Leathernecks built some momentum, scoring on a 4-play, 95-yard touchdown drive following a Draylen Ellis. Western Illinois added a field goal and then a touchdown to trim the lead to 35-20. Tennessee State tacked on 10 more points for a more comfortable victory. The win keeps the Tigers in the Big South- OVC Championship picture, as they are tied for second at 4-2 with Tennessee Tech, who would hold a potential tiebreaker as a result of their 24-14 win over TSU earlier in the season. 

image via Gardner-Webb Athletics

Gardner-Webb (4-6, 3-3) enters the matchup fresh off a 31-28 win over Eastern Illinois. Gardner-Webb took a 31-14 lead into the fourth quarter, however, had to hang on to claim the win, as EIU scored 14 points in the fourth quarter. Miles Richardson intercepted a Pierce Holley pass on a potential game-tying drive that allowed GWU to preserve the victory. The Bulldogs recorded 11 sacks on the afternoon, and held the Panthers to a mere 7 yards on the ground, but were torched in the air, surrendering 458 passing yards. The win extended the Bulldog’s current win streak to 2 games and keeps the potential of GWU finishing with a .500 record with wins in their last two contests. 

How Tennessee State can win

Image via Tennessee State Athletics

Tennessee State must get off to a good start. Even if starting the game on solid footing does not result in putting up a substantial amount of points, TSU must, at all costs, avoid the critical errors that have led to multiple touchdown deficits in previous conference matchups. In their 24-14 loss to Tennessee Tech, the Tigers found themselves down 14-0 in the first quarter. Against UT Martin, TSU was in a 21-0 hole 9 minutes into the contest. Though the Skyhawks would only score 7 more points on the evening, the gulf of the Martin lead was too wide for the Tigers to cross and they fell, 28-21. Although they defeated Lindenwood 24-20, it was not an easy path to victory, as Tennessee State had to overcome a 20-7 deficit. 

Buoyed by an 11-sack performance against Eastern Illinois, Gardner-Webb now leads the Big South-OVC with 35 on the season. It will be of great importance for the TSU to provide premium protection for quarterback Draylen Ellis. For the Tennessee State offense to perform optimally, Ellis needs to be looking downfield more than up at the clouds because he is being constantly picked up off the turf. 

Draylen Ellis’ decision-making will have to be on point, as it has been most of the season. Questionable decisions such as the interception he threw near the end of the first half against Western Illinois that led to the Leathernecks’ first touchdown, must be eliminated. 

Tennessee State will have to bring an effective run game to Boiling Springs. Surprisingly, TSU is in the bottom third of the Big South-OVC, averaging only 108.3 yards per contestThe multi-faceted running back attack the Tigers employ does provide variety that defenses must contend with, however, TSU has not had a single back run for 100 yards on the season. 

In addition to being productive in the run game, TSU will have to be able to sufficiently slow down the Big South-OVC’s fourth most proficient rushing attack in Gardner-Webb, who averages 137.8 yards per contest. Edward Saydee is the Bulldogs’ leading rusher with 620 yards, while his backfield mates Quasean Holmes and Carson Gresock have run for 370 and 355, respectively. 

Final Score
Tennessee State: 27
Gardner-Webb: 17

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